For over 30 years, Gary D. Halbert has been publishing newsletters for the investment community. Now you can receive his FREE Forecasts & Trends E-Letter delivered each week to your e-mail inbox. Gary covers the latest economic forecasts and market analysis, and you'll enjoy his always-spirited political commentaries.


This Week's Forecasts & Trends E-Letter

If Corporate & Individual Tax Cuts Fail, Stocks Will Plunge

November 14, 2017

I was planning to lay off the tax reform topic today but as we all saw late last week, the stock markets could tank if it turns out we don’t get tax cuts passed this year. When the Senate released its tax plan on Thursday showing the corporate tax rate would not be cut to 20% until 2019, stocks reversed sharply lower.

It should be clear to all that a big corporate tax rate cut this year, and other goodies, are fully baked into today’s equity markets. As a result, I think we could see a significant downward correction should the Republicans fail to pass something meaningful this year. Given that reality, I think we should keep our focus on the status of tax reform, at least for now.

I also say that because I believe there is a very good chance the Republicans are going to blow this opportunity. As you will read below, neither the House bill nor the Senate bill has any chance of becoming law as currently written. Most importantly, both violate the “Byrd Rule” in that they both add a lot to the budget deficit over the next 10 years.
 

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