For over 30 years, Gary D. Halbert has been publishing newsletters for the investment community. Now you can receive his FREE Forecasts & Trends E-Letter delivered each week to your e-mail inbox. Gary covers the latest economic forecasts and market analysis, and you'll enjoy his always-spirited political commentaries.


This Week's Forecasts & Trends E-Letter

Labor Force Participation Lowest in 36 Years - Why?

September 9, 2014

Last Friday’s unemployment report for August was significantly weaker than expected. While the headline unemployment rate dipped back to 6.1% (same as it was for June), the number of new jobs created last month was substantially below expectations and marked the lowest number of the year.

Until last Friday’s disappointing jobs report, most economists assumed that job growth would continue at a pace of more than 200,000 new jobs per month. But today we’ll look at five facts which suggest that such an assumption was likely misplaced.

Our main topic today focuses on the labor force participation rate – the percentage of Americans working or looking for work – which is now at a 36-year low. People are leaving the workforce in record numbers, and it’s not all because Baby Boomers are retiring. Over half of those leaving the workforce have simply given up on finding a job.

The question is whether this is a “cyclical” phenomenon that will improve when the economy gets stronger, or whether it’s a “structural” problem that will be with us for years. That’s what we’ll explore as we go along today.  

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