For over 30 years, Gary D. Halbert has been publishing newsletters for the investment community. Now you can receive his FREE Forecasts & Trends E-Letter delivered each week to your e-mail inbox. Gary covers the latest economic forecasts and market analysis, and you'll enjoy his always-spirited political commentaries.


This Week's Forecasts & Trends E-Letter

Median Household Income Down Last 15 Years - Why?

November 25, 2014

One of the most puzzling questions in economics today is why did median household income peak in 1999 and has yet to recover? Most analysts cite the fact that we had two serious recessions in the space of a decade, including the financial crisis of 2008-2009.

While the Great Recession ended in June 2009, real median household income (adjusted for inflation) remains well below the peak of around $57,000 in 1999 and has been below $52,000 in each of the last three years. The question is, why?

The standard answers, especially among progressives, are: 1) the sluggish economic recovery; 2) growing income inequality; 3) the failure to raise the minimum wage; 4) globalization and outsourcing; 5) corporate greed; and other variations of economic pessimism.

However, there are some other very obvious, but mostly overlooked, factors that can help explain why median household income has declined over the last 15 years that have nothing to do with economic stagnation. The fact is that there have been significant demographic changes in the composition of US households.

Economists Mark Perry and Alex Pollock, who also are contributors at the American Enterprise Institute, offered a very interesting analysis on median household income last week, and I will summarize their latest work for you today. I think you'll be surprised.

Also, we'll look at the reasons why the marriage rate in the US is now at a 93-year low, according to the Census Bureau. The marriage rate for those 18 and older has fallen to a new low of only 50.3%, down from the peak of 72.2% in 1960.  And finally, we'll end with an interesting article from Larry Kudlow on the subject of marriage.

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